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And now for the good news


Forget the debates for a moment. We’ll call last night’s VP face-off a draw. (And we’ll recommend a bonus to Palin’s coaches.) A NYTimes/CBS poll conducted between Sep 26-30 showed a dramatic increase in Obama’s lead, up to a “statistically safe” 49% over McCain’s 40%. That’s good news for me – and hopefully for you too, dera reader, whereever you are.

But straw polls can be more than misleading. After all, as we learned in 2000, Presidents are chosen not by popular vote, but by the Electoral College – essentially, the popular vote on a State-by-State basis. But this is where it gets yet more encouraging. The New York Times is maintaining an ongoing map of the States – and as currently colored in and added up, it looks more than encouraging for Obama. If the majority of States vote the way they are expected, McCain would need to win every one of the remaining Battleground states (Florida, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, and New Hampshire) to secure the Presidency. Certainly, that’s possible. Anything could happen between now and November 4. But it looks unlikely. The polls show Obama currently leading in all these States – and the McCain camp yesterday “gave up” on trying to win another of them, Michigan. NYTimes map here. RCP map here. Summary of current polls here. Details of all polling here.

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